Oscar Predictions

* = Will Win
+ = Want to Win

Best Pic:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk +
The Really?
Slumdog Millionaire *

Okay. I’m not going to bitch about The Dark Knight not being nominated. Not being nominated doesn’t remove the DVD from my shelf. It’s still there. I can still watch it. But really? The Reader? Screw the Reader and its crappily photoshopped poster. Anyway, Slumdog for the win because it’s CROWD PLEASING which is another way of saying it’s PANDERING.

Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk +
Brad Pitt – CCoBB
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler *

Haven’t seen The Wrestler but Rourke certainly deserves the nod. And I’m sure he deserves the win. Power to him. But I usually am not a fan of Sean Penn, at least not to the degree in which some are. However, his convincing and un-showy portrayal of Harvey Milk was nothing short of spectacular.

Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Melissa Leo – Frozen River +
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – The Reader *

Kate Winslet deserves an Oscar but I sort of hope she doesn’t win one. It’s like she doesn’t need it. The woman has never done anything short of superb work in everything I’ve seen her in. I say give it to Leo who has flown under the radar for a while and deserves some recognition. Shouldn’t that be one of the functions of the Academy Awards? Exposing viewers to new and unknown performers and filmmakers?

Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight *+
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road

There’s no discussion with this category.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams – Doubt
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – CCoBB *
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler +

I doubt that the Curious Case of Benjamin Butthead (forget who I stole that from) will go home without at least one win in the major categories and I have a feeling that Henson will be the one to pull it off. Her performance came off the most appealing in the film, infusing some genuine emotion into an otherwise limp screenplay and story. However, I would love for Tomei to win just to put a sock in the mouths of all the people who have been bitching for the past 17 years that she didn’t deserve her Oscar for My Cousin Vinnie.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire *
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant – Milk +

I do like Danny Boyle a whole lot. He does deserve an Oscar. I just wish that he had gotten some recognition for Millions which I thought was a much better film than Slumdog. Van Sant is someone who is overdue as well. Never a filmmaker to go about anything traditionally, he never really seems to let a style get in the way of telling a story as best as possible. Know who else succeeded at that this year? Christopher Nolan. But I said I wasn’t going to go down that path…

Best Original Screenplay:
Dustin Lance Black – Milk *
Courtney Hunt – Frozen River
Mike Leigh – Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh – In Bruges +
Andrew Stanton – WALL-E

I would be really happy for Black to win not just because Milk was a great movie but because it’s his first screenplay. That’s gotta be an awesome feeling. But still. McDonagh is worthy for his script for In Bruges. It’s a movie that gains strength each time you see it. Wall-E better not win because of that second half of the movie: preachy, unimaginative, mushy.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy – Slumdog Millionaire *
David Hare – The Reader
Peter Morgan – Frost/Nixon +
Eric Roth – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley – Doubt

Can’t really say too much about this category. I only say Morgan because it must have been a challenge to take something like the Frost/Nixon tapes and turn it into an entertaining movie. Then again, I haven’t seen it yet.

Best Cinematography:
Anthony Dod Mantle – Slumdog Millionaire
Chris Menges, Roger Deakins – The Reader
Claudio Miranda – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
Wally Pfister – The Dark Knight +
Tom Stern – Changeling

Eventually, eventually, they’ll hand out this award for cinematography that supports the film and adds a further dimension to the storytelling and not cinematography that is simply a bunch of pretty pictures with nice compositions and colors. We are not in high school art class. This is the big leagues.

Best Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
The Dark Knight +
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Ba-ba-ba-boom. That was Dark Knight’s editing. There is so much going on in that movie so quickly that it is quite a feat to get everything across clearly. But CCoBB will get it.

Best Art Direction:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
The Dark Knight +
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Sort of the same argument as with cinematography.

Best Sound Mixing:
CCoBB
The Dark Knight *+
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

I don’t know. But I’m sure Batman does it best.

Best Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight +
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E *
Wanted

Ditto. Although I know that creating and fine tuning sounds for an animated takes a ridiculous amount of energy and time and you have to respect that. Especially when it’s done well.

Best Costume Design:
Australia +
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess *
Milk
Revolutionary Road

None of these particularly struck me with their clothing but they usually give it to the period piece.

Best Original Score:
Alexandre Desplat – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *+
Danny Elfman – Milk
James Newton Howard – Defiance
Thomas Newman – Wall-E
A.R. Rahman – Slumdog Millionaire

I guess the music was pretty good. To be honest I didn’t really notice any of the music in any of these films.

Best Foreign Language Film:
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel) *+

Shot in the dark.

Best Documentary Feature:
The Betrayal
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire *+
Trouble the Water

Another shot in the dark. But I’ve heard good things about Man on Wire. In addition, Philippe Petit was on the Colbert Report and was one of the few people to go mano e mano with Colbert and come off as the funny, smart one.

Best Animated Feature:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E *+

Much like the best supporting actor category, there really isn’t any discussion with this category.

Best Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *+
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Admittedly, the transformation of old BB into regular BB and then into young BB was pretty incredible. Very realistic and effective. To be honest, I thought some of the effects in Iron Man looked like a cut scene from a video game. Still a badass movie though.

Best Make-Up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *+
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Gotta go with CCoBB again.

Best Song:
Down to Earth  – Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman – WALL-E *+
O Saya – Slumdog Millionaire
Jaiho – Slumdog Millionaire

Where the fuck is the Boss? Christ people, you can’t piss him off like that.